Sector information worldwide

»Under pressure of the financial and economic crisis«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Automobile Industry" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Automobile Sector is looking forward to a worldwide matchless break


• Situation in USA and Europe becomes more and more critical

Outlook:

• Economic downturn in 2008 and 2009


• Automotive suppliers are facing a shake-out

Insolvency Risk:

• Insolvencies inreased to 16.7% from August to October 2008


• In 2009 the insolvency risk will rise substantially

»Increasing cloudiness«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Construction Industry" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Directly influenced by international real estate crisis


• German construction sector comparatively in good condition

Outlook:

• Economic downturn in 2009


• Varying development of sub-sectors to be continued

Insolvency Risk:

• Increasing insolvencies in 2008


• In 2009 an increase up to 9.1% is to be due

»Heavily downturn«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Chemical Industry" as per: 02/2009

Current Situation:

• Output decreased in Q4 at 11.1% Q/Q


• All the year round output decreased at 2.9% and the business volume turned down at 4.3%

Outlook:

• In 2009 a sharp regression is to be expected


• Worldwide heavily drop in demand mainly by the industrial consumers

Insolvency Risk:

• Increasing insolvencies from January to November 2008 at 50%


• In 2009 insolvencies will continue to rise

»Distinguished by decrease in consumption«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Retail Industry" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Pan-European cut-throat competition


• German Retail Sector is developing slowly

Outlook:

• Consumers are loosing confidence


• Outlook 2009 is dampened

Insolvency Risk:

• In 2008 insolvencies were increasing


• Insolvencies continue to rise in 2009

»In the maelstrom of economic slump«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Electrical Industry" as per: 03/2009

Current Situation:

• Global market volume estimated at 2.5 trillion Euro


• Since autumn 2008 the German Electrical Sector has to fight aginst a heavily slump in output and turnover

Outlook:

• Dramatic detoriation in a very short period of time


• In 2009 hardest regression ever to be expected

Insolvency Risk:

• Reflation of the last years improved the economic situation


• In 2009 a significant detoriation is to be expected

»Margins under pressure«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Food Markets" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Worldwide trade volume estimated at 1.5 trillion USD


• Earnings of German Food Market declined

Outlook:

• In 2009 output decreased noticeably


• Market saturation tendencies will cause severe problems

Insolvency Risk:

• Increasing insolvencies at 25.7% from August to October 2008


• In 2009 increase of insolvencies will continue

»End of boom«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Engine Construction" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• After an economic upturn production slumped down at 3.0%


• Sector had to face fluctuating costs of material

Outlook:

• The Engine Construction Sector is well prepared for upcoming weakness of the market


• In 2009 production will decrease significantly

Insolvency Risk:

• Insolvencies increased at 28.6% from August to October 2008


• In 2009 insolvencies will rise considerably

»Market downturn«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Metal Industry" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Drop in demand and downturn of production in the last months


• From September to November 2008 turnover and output decreased at 6% (y/y)

Outlook:

• Sector will come into a severe regression in 2009


• Small and medium-sized companies will have to face a substitutional competition

Insolvency Risk:

• Number of insolvencies decreased at 15.2% in the period of January to October 2008


• The positive trend will end in 2009

»Increasing cloudiness«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Furniture Industry" as per: 03/2009

Current Situation:

• Production and turnover contracted at 2.3% in 2008. Similar trend in the trading sector


• Earnings generally low

Outlook:

• Due to the global regression the economic situation will change for the worse in 2009


• Medium-term growth will be limited

Insolvency Risk:

• Insolvencies declined at 38.3% in 2008


• In 2009 this trend will reverse because of the global regression

»Noticable skidmarks«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Shipping Trade" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Turnover up at 8% in 2008


• Continuing process of market concentration

Outlook:

• A strong decrease in demand will lead to a regression in 2009


• Main market field will be logistics

Insolvency Risk:

• Number of insolvencies increased in the period of January to October 2008 at 20.9%


• Insolvency risk in this sector is higher-than-average

»Going through a dry spell«


Download PDF: Sector Report "Steel Industry" as per: 02/2009

Current Situation:

• Output and turnover slumped down at 10.5% respectively 7.9% in Q4 2008


• Earnings are low due to the increase of commodity prices

Outlook:

• In 2009 a severe collapse in production is to be expected


• Growth opportunities in internationalisation, optimisation of location and specialisation

Insolvency Risk:

• Decreasing of insolvencies at 25% in 2008


• Reverse of this trend in 2009

»Downturn after a temporary boom«


Download PDF: Sector Report Textile "Industry" as per: 01/2009

Current Situation:

• Significant detoriationin 2008


• Relocation of production continues

Outlook:

• Negative underlying trend in 2009


• Output will decrease in 2009

Insolvency Risk:

• Negative trend in 2008


• Insolvency risk will increase in 2009

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
All the statements contained herein have been researched and checked by with the utmost care. The company can not however take any responsibility for the correctness, completeness and current relevance of the contents. Opinions expressed by the authors are not necessarily identical with those of Euler Hermes Kreditversicherung. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: To the extent that statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements are expressed herein, they that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) per-formance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist ac-tivities and their consequences. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein.